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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.